Search results for " forecasting"
showing 10 items of 163 documents
Automatic generation of emissivity maps on a European scale
2009
The remote sensing measurement of the land surface temperature from satellites provides an overview of this magnitude on a continuous and regular basis. The study of its evolution in time and space is a critical factor in many scientific fields such as weather forecasting, detection of forest fires, climate change, and so on. The main problem of making this measurement from satellite data is the need to correct the effects of the atmosphere and the surface emissivity. In this work, these corrections have been made using a split-window algorithm. The aim was to define an enhanced vegetation cover method and develop a system that used it, in order to automatically generate maps of land surfac…
Isolating the climate change impacts on air-pollution-related-pathologies over central and southern Europe – a modelling approach on cases and costs
2019
Air pollution has important implications for human health and associated external costs to society and is closely related to climate change. This contribution tries to assess the impacts of present (1996-2015) and future (2071-2100 under RCP8.5) air pollution on several cardiovascular and respiratory pathologies and estimate the difference in the costs associated with these health impacts on the European population. For this, air quality data from the regional chemistry-climate modelling system of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) are used, together with some epidemiological information from the European Commission. The methodology considered…
Forecasting Passenger Traffic for a Regional Airport
2019
Abstract The purpose of the present research is estimating the potential traffic for SIA (Sibiu International Airport, SBZ) for the year 2017. Predicting as accurate as possible the passenger traffic for a certain airport is an aspect of major importance for both the airport management and the airline companies. The theoretical quality of the forecasting models for air traffic of passengers is fundamental for obtaining the most accurate predictions. In this regard, a two-step process was used in developing the traffic forecasting model: (1) Identifying the proper regression model for traffic estimation based on the number of aircraft departures, and (2) Forecasting the number of aircraft de…
Effects of initialization on response of a fully-distributed hydrologic model
2008
Summary Knowledge of initial conditions is very important to correctly model the basin response at the storm event scale. Of particular interest is the influence of topography and soil type on the principal hydrologic variables and runoff generation mechanisms as a function of antecedent wetness conditions. This study addresses the influence of initial states on the short-term hydrologic response and characterizes the effects of topography and soils on the dissipation of the influence of the initialization conditions. Two case studies are considered: a synthetic two-dimensional planar hillslope with various assumed slope magnitudes and soil types; and a real basin (∼800 km2) with actual lan…
Predictive pumping based on sensor data and weather forecast
2019
In energy production, peat extraction has a significant role in Finland. However, protection of nature has become more and more important globally. How do we solve this conflict of interests respecting both views? In peat production, one important phase is to drain peat bog so that peat production becomes available. This means that we have control over how we can lead water away from peat bog to nature without water contamination with solid and other harmful substances. In this paper we describe a novel method how fouling of water bodies from peat bog can be controlled more efficiently by using weather forecast to predict rainfall and thus, minimize the effluents to nature. peerReviewed
The Making of the New European Wind Atlas - Part 2: production and evaluation
2020
This is the second of two papers that document the creation of the New European Wind Atlas (NEWA). In Part 1, we described the sensitivity experiments and accompanying evaluation done to arrive at the final mesoscale model setup used to produce the mesoscale wind atlas. In this paper, Part 2, we document how we made the final wind atlas product, covering both the production of the mesoscale climatology generated with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the microscale climatology generated with the Wind Atlas Analysis and Applications Program (WAsP). The paper includes a detailed description of the technical and practical aspects that went into running the mesoscale simulati…
Global Warming: Human Intervention in World Climate
2010
In the preceding chapter, we described climate changes that have occurred over very long geological periods. We concluded that Earth is currently in an interglacial interval within a rather long period of glaciations. Indeed, average carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have been slowly decreasing over the past 600,000 years, with accompanying cooling (Fig. 6.3). There have been, of course, many periodic changes in the CO2 concentrations and average temperature over this period (see Fig. 7.1). However, very recently, something quite unique and startling has occurred. As Fig. 7.1 shows, there has been a remarkable increase in CO2 levels, actually during the past 200 years, from 28…
An empirical comparison of cross-impact models for forecasting sales
1986
Abstract This paper compares a set of four cross-impact models: (1) additive, (2) likelihood multiplier, (3) R-space, and (4) a model constructed by the author. This is done by examining a forecasting problem encountered by an industrial firm. The forecasting problem was to study the market trend in order to decide whether to expand the production capacity of a ceramics plant. In spite of their different theoretical premises, the models yielded similar results. However, only the R-space model produced results that differed from the others. The paper also suggests a method that should avoid some internal contradictions of the cross-impact models.
Preliminary Analysis on Correlations between Spatial Distribution of Chlorophyll-a and Experimental Data of Biomass in the Strait of Sicily
2010
This study, using both remotely sensed and measured in situ data, is directed to the analysis of the correlations between the chlorophyll-a concentration and the biomass of sardines and anchovies acoustically evaluated in the Strait of Sicily. This work, inter alia, shows the usefulness of remote observation of seas in determining possible relationships between fish stocks and some oceanographic parameters (Sea Surface Temperature, Chlorophyll-a, Zooplankton).
Economic value, competition and financial distress in the european banking system
2012
Abstract In this paper we examine the impact of a large number of factors at the bank level (liquidity and credit risks, asset size, income diversification and market power), at the industry level (banking concentration) and macro-level (real GDP growth) on bank financial distress using an unbalanced panel of 308 European commercial banks between 1996 and 2009. The observations falling below a given threshold of the empirical distribution of the Shareholder Value Ratio proxy bank financial distress. We employ a panel probit regression and, given the presence of overlapping data giving rise to residual autocorrelation, we use the Bertschek and Lechner (1998) robust estimator of the covarianc…